(執筆之時 馬會已證實 佳龍駒 經搶救無效後已離世 願安息)
黑天鵝 是指極不可能發生 實際上卻又發生的事件
第一隻 黑天鵝 佳龍駒 1.01倍 位置
好馬就係咁 佢地鬥心強橫 我地永遠睇唔出佢地幾時身體響起警號 上仗末段斜跑 大部份人會不以為意 事後大家才恍然大悟 諗住用95秒時間去賺取1%回報既朋友 就此血本無歸
第二隻 黑天鵝 莫雷拉 1.22倍 騎師王
1. 大部份馬迷都好習慣馬匹退出 就會獲得退款 但係買騎師王o既時候 我相信無乜人會考慮埋個騎師跑跑下退出會點 今日買 莫雷拉 o既人實在有深刻o既教訓 幾可肯定 騎師王 o既投注額將會下降
2. 據悉 莫雷拉
o係第三場時已拉傷屁股肌肉 (靠眼光入閘後曾大力擺動) 咁即係佢o係未十足o既狀態之下跑4至8場 而跑完 紅衣醒神 後 (即係最高獎金果兩場之後) 佢終於撐唔住 要退出餘下賽事 首先 紅衣醒神 o係直路走勢唔係咁規矩 莫雷拉 需要側起晒身黎騎 可能係咁令佢傷勢加劇 但話說回頭 係帶微偒o既時候策騎4至8場係咪合適o既做法?
如立刻退賽會對投注左佢騎師王o既朋友更不公平 唔退賽o既話卻會對投注左佢4至8場o既朋友唔公平 而跑完獎金最高果兩場後又決定退賽 時間上實在巧合 這些種種問題 永遠唔會有一個正確o既答案 但係都係值得我地深思
所以一句到尾 投注o既野 都係以小博大好
(While I’m writing this piece, HKJC already confirmed that
Rapper Dragon was euthanized due to fractured pelvis suffered in Champions
Mile)
Black Swan is a metaphor that describes an event that comes
as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized
after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
First Black Swan – Rapper Dragon 1.01 Odds for Place
Great horses like Rapper Dragon are like this. They have
highly competitive heart and would go for their best, even they’re exhausted,
and you could never tell from their appearance. There were signs in the last
two races of Rapper Dragon but most of us missed that. With hindsight, it’s all
obvious. For those who would like to have 1% return in 95 seconds, they’ve got
their lessons learnt.
Second Black Swan – Joao Moreira 1.22 Odds for Jockey
Challenge
1. When betting Jockey Challenge during the racing day, it’s
very rare for most of us to weigh in the risk of the jockey quitting the
remaining races. In real life it does happen and it’s well recorded in betting
policy (wondering who would read those). For those who have betted Joao in
Jockey Challenge, you get burnt and I could boldly predict that the betting
amount for Jockey Challenge would drop
quite significantly.
2. Rumor says that
Joao already suffered from injury after Race 3. This means he is not at his
best condition for Race 4 to 8. After Race 8 (i.e. finishing the highest prize
money races), he can’t stand for it anymore and decided to excuse himself from
Race 9 and 10. Firstly, his Race 8 ride Mr. Stunning was shifting a lot on the
straight and it could very possibly severe Joao’s injury. However, is it fair
for those who betted on Joao’s rides on Race 4-8 if he’s not at top condition? In
contrast, If he excused himself right after Race 3, it also wouldn’t be fair to
those who betted on Joao in Jockey Challenge. In addition, Joao coincidentally
decided to excuse himself after the highest prize money races are over, the
timing is also very dubious and leads to misunderstanding. All in all, these
questions would never have one right answer but worth pondering.
To conclude, betting
horse should aim for high return on investment. Putting in most of your capital
in one lackluster-odds bet is never a good idea.
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